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Abstract AimThe frequency of different body sizes in an ecological community (the individual size distribution, or ISD) is a key link between the number of individual organisms present in a community and community function—total biomass or total energy use. If the ISD changes over time, the dynamics of community function may become decoupled from trends in abundance. Understanding how, and how often, the ISD modulates the relationship between abundance, biomass and energy use is of critical importance to understand biodiversity trends in the Anthropocene. Here, we conduct the first macroecological‐scale analysis of this type for avian communities. LocationNorth America, north of Mexico. Time Period1989–2018. Major Taxa StudiedBreeding birds. MethodsWe used species' traits to generate annual ISDs for bird communities in the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We compared the long‐term trends in total biomass and energy use to the trends generated from a null model of an unchanging ISD. ResultsTrends in biomass have been evenly split between increases and decreases, but the trends predicted by the null model were dominated by decreases. A substantial number of communities have undergone a shift in the ISD favouring larger bodied species, resulting in a less negative trend in biomass than would be expected had the ISD remained static. Trends in energy use more closely paralleled the null model. Main ConclusionsTaking changes in the ISD into account qualitatively changes the continental‐scale picture of how biomass and energy use have changed over the past 30 years. For North American breeding birds, shifts in species composition favouring larger bodied species may have partially offset declines in standing biomass driven by losses of individuals over the past 30 years. 

Abstract For many species, a well documented response to anthropogenic climate change is a shift in various aspects of its life history, including its timing or phenology. Often, these phenological shifts are associated with changes in abiotic factors used as proxies for resource availability or other suitable conditions. Resource availability, however, can also be impacted by competition, but the impact of competition on phenology is less studied than abiotic drivers. We fit generalized additive models (GAMs) to a long‐term experimental dataset on small mammals monitored in the southwestern United States and show that altered competitive landscapes can drive shifts in breeding timing and prevalence, and that, relative to a dominant competitor, other species exhibit less specific responses to environmental factors. These results suggest that plasticity of phenological responses, which is often described in the context of annual variation in abiotic factors, can occur in response to biotic context as well. Variation in phenological responses under different biotic conditions shown here further demonstrates that a more nuanced understanding of shifting biotic interactions is useful to better understand and predict biodiversity patterns in a changing world. 

Abstract Exploring and accounting for the emergent properties of ecosystems as complex systems is a promising horizon in the search for general processes to explain common ecological patterns. For example the ubiquitous hollow‐curve form of the species abundance distribution is frequently assumed to reflect ecological processes structuring communities, but can also emerge as a statistical phenomenon from the mathematical definition of an abundance distribution. Although the hollow curve may be a statistical artefact, ecological processes may induce subtle deviations between empirical species abundance distributions and their statistically most probable forms. These deviations may reflect biological processes operating on top of mathematical constraints and provide new avenues for advancing ecological theory. Examining ~22,000 communities, we found that empirical SADs are highly uneven and dominated by rare species compared to their statistical baselines. Efforts to detect deviations may be less informative in small communities—those with few species or individuals—because these communities have poorly resolved statistical baselines. The uneven nature of many empirical SADs demonstrates a path forward for leveraging complexity to understand ecological processes governing the distribution of abundance, while the issues posed by small communities illustrate the limitations of using this approach to study ecological patterns in small samples. 

Abstract Probabilistic near‐term forecasting facilitates evaluation of model predictions against observations and is of pressing need in ecology to inform environmental decision‐making and effect societal change. Despite this imperative, many ecologists are unfamiliar with the widely used tools for evaluating probabilistic forecasts developed in other fields. We address this gap by reviewing the literature on probabilistic forecast evaluation from diverse fields including climatology, economics, and epidemiology. We present established practices for selecting evaluation data (end‐sample hold out), graphical forecast evaluation (times‐series plots with uncertainty, probability integral transform plots), quantitative evaluation using scoring rules (log, quadratic, spherical, and ranked probability scores), and comparing scores across models (skill score, Diebold–Mariano test). We cover common approaches, highlight mathematical concepts to follow, and note decision points to allow application of general principles to specific forecasting endeavors. We illustrate these approaches with an application to a long‐term rodent population time series currently used for ecological forecasting and discuss how ecology can continue to learn from and drive the cross‐disciplinary field of forecasting science. 

Abstract Insects are the most ubiquitous and diverse group of eukaryotic organisms on Earth, forming a crucial link in terrestrial and freshwater food webs. They have recently become the subject of headlines because of observations of dramatic declines in some places. Although there are hundreds of long‐term insect monitoring programs, a global database for long‐term data on insect assemblages has so far remained unavailable. In order to facilitate synthetic analyses of insect abundance changes, we compiled a database of long‐term (≥10 yr) studies of assemblages of insects (many also including arachnids) in the terrestrial and freshwater realms. We searched the scientific literature and public repositories for data on insect and arachnid monitoring using standardized protocols over a time span of 10 yr or longer, with at least two sampling events. We focused on studies that presented or allowed calculation of total community abundance or biomass. We extracted data from tables, figures, and appendices, and, for data sets that provided raw data, we standardized trapping effort over space and time when necessary. For each site, we extracted provenance details (such as country, state, and continent) as well as information on protection status, land use, and climatic details from publicly available GIS sources. In all, the database contains 1,668 plot‐level time series sourced from 165 studies with samples collected between 1925 and 2018. Sixteen data sets provided here were previously unpublished. Studies were separated into those collected in the terrestrial realm (103 studies with a total of 1,053 plots) and those collected in the freshwater realm (62 studies with 615 plots). Most studies were from Europe (48%) and North America (29%), with 34% of the plots located in protected areas. The median monitoring time span was 19 yr, with 12 sampling years. The number of individuals was reported in 129 studies, the total biomass was reported in 13 studies, and both abundance and biomass were reported in 23 studies. This data set is published under a CC‐BY license, requiring attribution of the data source. Please cite this paper if the data are used in publications, and respect the licenses of the original sources when using (part of) their data as detailed in Metadata S1: Table 1.